METHODOLOGY

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Everything on this site is statistical description of past data, provided for information and education only. It is not a price prediction, a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, or financial, legal or tax advice. Models can be wrong, data can be wrong, and past relationships do not guarantee future results. Digital assets are highly volatile and you can lose all of your money. Do your own research and consult a licensed professional before making any investment decision.

DATA SOURCES

Network activity (transaction counts, TPS) comes from public Hedera mirror nodes for mainnet and testnet. HBAR prices come from public exchange feeds (Coinbase, Kraken, Binance.US, OKX), combined into a median composite. Data is stored in 5-minute snapshots. Feeds can lag, drop out or report errors, and historical backfilled values may be incomplete.

TREND & CORRELATION

Trends are log-linear regressions over the trailing 4 hours. Correlation (ρ) is the Pearson correlation between 5-minute log returns of activity and price, with rolling and lead/lag variants. Why: they show whether activity and price have recently moved together. Risk: correlation is not causation, and relationships shift or vanish without warning.

CONFIDENCE CONES

Cones project a log-normal random walk 2 hours ahead. Price drift is modeled as α + β × expected activity growth; width blends residual noise with activity-driven variance, scaled by EWMA (λ = 0.94) volatility so it reacts to calm and stormy periods. Inner band ≈ 68%, outer ≈ 95%. Risk: crypto returns have fat tails, so moves outside the 95% band happen far more often than 5% of the time.

ANOMALY SHAVING

Optional. Activity spikes with a median-based (MAD) z-score above a threshold are clipped before fitting trends; raw data still sets volatility. Why: single spam bursts can distort trends. Risk: genuine events can be smoothed away. Charts are tagged NORMALIZED when active.

MARKET REGIME

Automatic label. HIGH-VOL when short-term EWMA volatility exceeds 1.5× its 8-hour average; TREND when the 4-hour price fit has R² above 0.5; otherwise RANGING. Risk: labels are backward-looking and can flip quickly.

VWAP

Optional overlay. Volume-weighted average price over the visible window with ±1σ/±2σ bands. Per-block trading volume is not stored, so weights use rolling 24h volume; treat it as an approximation.

BREAKOUT ALERTS

TPS alerts fire above the prior 24h 95th percentile. Price and activity breakouts require two consecutive 5-minute blocks outside the 95% cone in the same direction; price breakouts also require network activity above its 24h median. Risk: alerts are descriptive, can be late, and can still be false.

NEWS & SENTIMENT

Headlines and sentiment tags are gathered and classified by AI. They can be inaccurate, incomplete or mislabeled. Always read the original source.